Less than a month after Ford Motor Co. was pummeled in one quality survey, a second survey has ranked it the No. 2 highest-quality U.S. automaker.
The second survey, released by Strategic Vision Inc. on Tuesday, said that customers' overall feeling about their vehicles is more important than particular problems.
Volkswagen was the top-ranked car company in the survey, helped by the Golf, Jetta and Tiguan models.
Ford owners reported more problems with their vehicles than the industry average, but rated the overall quality of the vehicles highly, according to the survey. They were particularly happy with the Ford Mustang coupe and convertible, the Flex, and the F-150 and 250/350 pickup trucks.
"People think of quality in a very different sense than just counting problems," said Christopher Chaney, a Strategic Vision vice president in charge of automotive research.
A company's use of new technology or styling can also play important roles, he said.
On a statistical basis, Ford tied with American Honda and Nissan Motor Corp. for the No. 2 ranking. Still, Ford fared better in the Strategic Vision study than it did in a survey by J.D. Power and Associates last month, where it fell to 23rd place, its lowest ranking in a decade. The J.D. Power survey records difficulties faced by new car owners in the first 90 days of ownership.
Ford has recently been criticized for a clunky control system for its radios and difficult-to-use technology.
Strategic Vision survey
Strategic Vision asked car owners to rate all aspects of ownership, from the process of buying a vehicle to its performance. The 2011 survey included 37,069 buyers of 2011 model-year vehicles from September to December 2010.
Corporation Total quality score Percent reporting
Volkswagen of America 881 27
Ford Motor Co* 863 28
American Honda Motor* 862 19
Nissan Motor Corp* 862 21
INDUSTRY AVERAGE 861 24
General Motors Co** 860 27
Toyota Motor Sales 854 20
Chrysler Group 853 28
Hyundai Motor America 852 28
* Statistical tie
** Excludes Saab
The Strategic Vision survey asks car owners to rate all aspects of ownership, from the process of buying a vehicle to its performance. The 2011 survey included 37,069 buyers of 2011 vehicles from September to December 2010. This is the sixteenth year of the survey, which is paid for by manufacturers.
Surveys like the Strategic Vision survey and the J.D. Power survey that attempt to gauge consumer sentiment are key pieces of industry marketing materials and help shape consumer opinion. They also help set resale values and warranty costs.
The idea that a car owner's overall experience could trump minor problems with a vehicle rests on the premise that there are few serious problems, those problems are typically fixed immediately at the dealership, and styling details can have significant impact, according to the survey.
Besides Ford, Volkswagen of America and Hyundai Motor America have also benefited from an owner's overall experience, according to the survey.
On average, 30 percent of owners reported problems with Volkswagen's Jetta and Hyundai's Sonata, compared with 22 percent of owners reporting problems for all mid-size cars. Even so, the 2011 models of both vehicles had record sales, according to the survey. The higher incidence of problems didn't matter because Jetta and Sonata owners were happy with their overall purchase, according to the survey.
Hyundai ranked 8th -- last place -- because some of its non-Sonata models were poorly received and the period of the survey excluded some new models, Chaney said.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Toyota sees Prius beating 2010 U.S. sales as supply grows
Toyota Motor Corp., with as little as one day's worth of Prius cars on dealers' lots after the March earthquake, says sales of the hybrid will still beat 2010.
Asia's largest automaker is racing to replenish supply after the lack of inventory led to a 61 percent drop in Prius deliveries in the U.S. in June, to the lowest level since September 2004. Almost half of Prius models are sold in the U.S., where the car accounts for more than 60 percent of hybrids sold since 1999, according to data supplied by automakers.
Prius, the company's No. 3 selling car after the Corolla and Camry, is the fastest-growing Toyota nameplate this year, even with the quake-depleted inventories. Demand for efficient cars has increased this year with higher fuel prices.
General Motors Co.'s Chevrolet Cruze was June's top-selling car in the U.S., while deliveries of Ford Motor Co.'s Focus rose 41 percent.
"Dealers simply cannot get their hands on them quick enough," said Ivan Drury, an analyst for Edmunds.com, an industry pricing and data Web site. The model "is easily the poster child for inventory issues."
Prior to the quake, Toyota targeted Prius sales in 2011 that would top the car's 2007 peak of 181,221. While that level may be out of reach for now, Toyota can still exceed 2010's deliveries of 140,928, said Donald Esmond, Toyota's senior vice president for U.S. sales.
Output increasing
Production of Prius and two Lexus hybrids is rebounding faster than Toyota first estimated after the 9-magnitude quake in March. The company expects to be back at full output by September, rather than its earlier target of late 2011.
The lack of available hybrids from Toyota has held the segment to 2.1 percent of industrywide U.S. sales so far this year. Even though Prius isn't among the automaker's most profitable lines, Toyota sees it as the best opportunity to win new customers in the next few years, said Jim Lentz, president of Toyota's U.S. sales unit.
The nameplate will be expanded to include the Prius v wagon, Prius c subcompact and plug-in Prius.
"By the end of this decade, the Prius nameplate will be the No. 1 passenger car nameplate in the industry," Lentz said in a July 6 phone interview. Boosting Prius supply, along with the introduction of the wagon version and a revamped Camry sedan later this year, gives the automaker a shot at making up for some sales lost in May and June.
Toyota also wants to ease a backlog for Prius that's pushed the wait time for consumers to as long as three months in some parts of the U.S. from none at the start of the year, said Jesse Toprak, an industry analyst.
'Least-available'
"At the moment, it's the least available of any mass- produced vehicle," said Toprak, with Truecar.com, an industry pricing and data company.
U.S. demand for fuel economy is up this year as gasoline prices approach 2008's record of $4.114 a gallon. While the fuel cost an average of $3.569 per gallon on July 5, down from $3.985 on May 4, the price is up 30 percent from a year ago, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Web site.
Higher prices at the pump buoyed sales of subcompacts and small cars, with such vehicles rising 21 percent this year through June, according to Autodata Corp. That compares with an 11 percent gain for midsize cars and a 4.7 percent drop for the large sedans, Autodata said.
High appeal
Prius' fuel-economy appeal has never been higher, said Bob Carter, Toyota's group vice president for U.S. sales. Interest in the car was up 36 percent in June from a year ago, based on consumer visits to Toyota's Prius Web site, according to Edmunds.com.
"I have extremely high demand, and the outlook is continuing to improve," Carter said in a June 22 interview. Failure to ramp up supply quick enough may blunt Toyota's goal to notch its first U.S. annual sales gain since 2007.
It also risks driving some buyers to models such as Ford's hybrid Fusion sedan and Hyundai Motor Co.'s new Sonata Hybrid, said Toprak. The growing selection of highly fuel-efficient, gasoline- engine small cars also threatens to lure away potential Prius buyers, said Edmunds.com's Drury.
"Some consumers might be willing to wait, but as time goes on and awareness of the many redesigned compact cars becomes higher, Toyota could suffer," Drury said.
Sales of the Prius in the first half were 66,520, little changed from 66,039 a year ago, when recalls of Toyota and Lexus models temporarily damped demand. Prius accounted for 8.2 percent of the company's U.S. sales during the period, while Camry deliveries were 18 percent and Corolla sales were 16.8 percent.
Prius inventory
Toyota's U.S. sales in the second quarter "slowed as inventories dropped and as a result, we find ourselves at virtually the same position we were a year ago on July 1," Esmond said on a July 1 conference call.
"We won't finish the year that way." While Toyota's Tsutsumi, Japan, plant that makes Prius and its Kyushu factory that builds hybrid Lexus CT200 hatchbacks and HS250 sedans weren't damaged by the March 11 disaster, parts needed for the cars grew scarce because of damages to suppliers' operation.
The automaker prioritized production of the three gasoline- electric cars after determining they were in the highest demand, said Shiori Hashimoto, a spokeswoman for the company.
"We worked hard to find out which components were critical, conditions of the supply chain, and how the limited car parts should be delivered to which assembly lines," said Hashimoto.
Speeding production
To restore Prius production as fast as possible after the quake, Toyota began sending about 150 workers from other factories in Japan to the Tsutsumi plant in late March, said Tomotaka Yagai, a spokesman at Toyota Motor Workers' Union in Toyota City.
Hashimoto declined to confirm the figure. So far, Toyota has only confirmed the U.S. will get a shipment of 36,000 Priuses that will arrive this month, with more on the way, Carter said.
"I can't give you a specific number, but it will improve significantly," he said, without elaborating.
Billy Rinker, general sales manager at Toyota Santa Monica, said a fresh supply of the cars has been arriving since late June. The Los Angeles-area dealership claims to be the largest seller of Prius in the U.S., with average monthly sales of 100 to 150 of the hybrids, he said.
Waiting list
"We only had 30 to sell last month, but July looks like we'll be back to about 80 percent of normal," Rinker said.
He estimates the dealership will sell about 100 this month. That won't eliminate the dealership's backlog. "We're still keeping a list and taking deposits for the car," Rinker said.
With the Prius v wagon, followed in 2012 by the subcompact Prius c and plug-in Prius, Toyota expects its "Prius family" to become its top-selling line within the decade, Carter said.
"A lot of our future plans are centered around the Prius and that goes into vehicle launches next fall," he said. Toyota said July 1 a new Camry and Camry Hybrid, Scion iQ minicar and revamped Yaris subcompact will arrive this year along with the v wagon.
The company is counting on those models, together with the jump in Prius supply and rebounding inventory of all its Toyota, Lexus and Scion products, to reverse a 4 percent slide in U.S. sales through June.
"It's coming back quicker than any of us expected," said Atkinson, who spoke by phone after attending Toyota's annual dealer meeting in Las Vegas last week. "Now it's time to go out and sell like hell."
Asia's largest automaker is racing to replenish supply after the lack of inventory led to a 61 percent drop in Prius deliveries in the U.S. in June, to the lowest level since September 2004. Almost half of Prius models are sold in the U.S., where the car accounts for more than 60 percent of hybrids sold since 1999, according to data supplied by automakers.
Prius, the company's No. 3 selling car after the Corolla and Camry, is the fastest-growing Toyota nameplate this year, even with the quake-depleted inventories. Demand for efficient cars has increased this year with higher fuel prices.
General Motors Co.'s Chevrolet Cruze was June's top-selling car in the U.S., while deliveries of Ford Motor Co.'s Focus rose 41 percent.
"Dealers simply cannot get their hands on them quick enough," said Ivan Drury, an analyst for Edmunds.com, an industry pricing and data Web site. The model "is easily the poster child for inventory issues."
Prior to the quake, Toyota targeted Prius sales in 2011 that would top the car's 2007 peak of 181,221. While that level may be out of reach for now, Toyota can still exceed 2010's deliveries of 140,928, said Donald Esmond, Toyota's senior vice president for U.S. sales.
Output increasing
Production of Prius and two Lexus hybrids is rebounding faster than Toyota first estimated after the 9-magnitude quake in March. The company expects to be back at full output by September, rather than its earlier target of late 2011.
The lack of available hybrids from Toyota has held the segment to 2.1 percent of industrywide U.S. sales so far this year. Even though Prius isn't among the automaker's most profitable lines, Toyota sees it as the best opportunity to win new customers in the next few years, said Jim Lentz, president of Toyota's U.S. sales unit.
The nameplate will be expanded to include the Prius v wagon, Prius c subcompact and plug-in Prius.
"By the end of this decade, the Prius nameplate will be the No. 1 passenger car nameplate in the industry," Lentz said in a July 6 phone interview. Boosting Prius supply, along with the introduction of the wagon version and a revamped Camry sedan later this year, gives the automaker a shot at making up for some sales lost in May and June.
Toyota also wants to ease a backlog for Prius that's pushed the wait time for consumers to as long as three months in some parts of the U.S. from none at the start of the year, said Jesse Toprak, an industry analyst.
'Least-available'
"At the moment, it's the least available of any mass- produced vehicle," said Toprak, with Truecar.com, an industry pricing and data company.
U.S. demand for fuel economy is up this year as gasoline prices approach 2008's record of $4.114 a gallon. While the fuel cost an average of $3.569 per gallon on July 5, down from $3.985 on May 4, the price is up 30 percent from a year ago, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Web site.
Higher prices at the pump buoyed sales of subcompacts and small cars, with such vehicles rising 21 percent this year through June, according to Autodata Corp. That compares with an 11 percent gain for midsize cars and a 4.7 percent drop for the large sedans, Autodata said.
High appeal
Prius' fuel-economy appeal has never been higher, said Bob Carter, Toyota's group vice president for U.S. sales. Interest in the car was up 36 percent in June from a year ago, based on consumer visits to Toyota's Prius Web site, according to Edmunds.com.
"I have extremely high demand, and the outlook is continuing to improve," Carter said in a June 22 interview. Failure to ramp up supply quick enough may blunt Toyota's goal to notch its first U.S. annual sales gain since 2007.
It also risks driving some buyers to models such as Ford's hybrid Fusion sedan and Hyundai Motor Co.'s new Sonata Hybrid, said Toprak. The growing selection of highly fuel-efficient, gasoline- engine small cars also threatens to lure away potential Prius buyers, said Edmunds.com's Drury.
"Some consumers might be willing to wait, but as time goes on and awareness of the many redesigned compact cars becomes higher, Toyota could suffer," Drury said.
Sales of the Prius in the first half were 66,520, little changed from 66,039 a year ago, when recalls of Toyota and Lexus models temporarily damped demand. Prius accounted for 8.2 percent of the company's U.S. sales during the period, while Camry deliveries were 18 percent and Corolla sales were 16.8 percent.
Prius inventory
Toyota's U.S. sales in the second quarter "slowed as inventories dropped and as a result, we find ourselves at virtually the same position we were a year ago on July 1," Esmond said on a July 1 conference call.
"We won't finish the year that way." While Toyota's Tsutsumi, Japan, plant that makes Prius and its Kyushu factory that builds hybrid Lexus CT200 hatchbacks and HS250 sedans weren't damaged by the March 11 disaster, parts needed for the cars grew scarce because of damages to suppliers' operation.
The automaker prioritized production of the three gasoline- electric cars after determining they were in the highest demand, said Shiori Hashimoto, a spokeswoman for the company.
"We worked hard to find out which components were critical, conditions of the supply chain, and how the limited car parts should be delivered to which assembly lines," said Hashimoto.
Speeding production
To restore Prius production as fast as possible after the quake, Toyota began sending about 150 workers from other factories in Japan to the Tsutsumi plant in late March, said Tomotaka Yagai, a spokesman at Toyota Motor Workers' Union in Toyota City.
Hashimoto declined to confirm the figure. So far, Toyota has only confirmed the U.S. will get a shipment of 36,000 Priuses that will arrive this month, with more on the way, Carter said.
"I can't give you a specific number, but it will improve significantly," he said, without elaborating.
Billy Rinker, general sales manager at Toyota Santa Monica, said a fresh supply of the cars has been arriving since late June. The Los Angeles-area dealership claims to be the largest seller of Prius in the U.S., with average monthly sales of 100 to 150 of the hybrids, he said.
Waiting list
"We only had 30 to sell last month, but July looks like we'll be back to about 80 percent of normal," Rinker said.
He estimates the dealership will sell about 100 this month. That won't eliminate the dealership's backlog. "We're still keeping a list and taking deposits for the car," Rinker said.
With the Prius v wagon, followed in 2012 by the subcompact Prius c and plug-in Prius, Toyota expects its "Prius family" to become its top-selling line within the decade, Carter said.
"A lot of our future plans are centered around the Prius and that goes into vehicle launches next fall," he said. Toyota said July 1 a new Camry and Camry Hybrid, Scion iQ minicar and revamped Yaris subcompact will arrive this year along with the v wagon.
The company is counting on those models, together with the jump in Prius supply and rebounding inventory of all its Toyota, Lexus and Scion products, to reverse a 4 percent slide in U.S. sales through June.
"It's coming back quicker than any of us expected," said Atkinson, who spoke by phone after attending Toyota's annual dealer meeting in Las Vegas last week. "Now it's time to go out and sell like hell."
Friday, July 08, 2011
GM to test offering insurance for 1 year to buyers in Northwest
General Motors -- testing a new sales promotion -- is offering Oregonians and Washingtonians a new incentive to buy or lease a GM vehicle.
Any driver from the two states who buys or leases a new vehicle through Sept. 6 and titles the vehicle in either state will receive a free one-year automobile insurance policy from MetLife Auto & Home.
The offer is part of a GM pilot program to see if offering a year’s worth of free insurance boosts sales.
GM chose Oregon and Washington to launch the program because the automaker has had traditionally weak sales there, GM spokesman Tom Henderson said.
The offer includes 2010, 2011 and 2012 models, GM said.
GM's U.S. sales are up 17 percent this year in a market that has advanced 13 percent.
If the pilot is successful, GM would consider expanding the program to other markets, Henderson said.
The policy covers the vehicle and any driver as long as the initial customer owns or leases the vehicle. Drivers aren’t required to accept the MetLife insurance.
Any driver with a valid operator's license is eligible for the offer, Henderson said. Commercial and fleet customers are not eligible.
The insurance incorporates liability and physical damage coverage, exceeding the legally required amount of coverage in both states, GM said.
Liability coverage is capped at $100,000 per person, and up to $300,000 per occurrence. Collision coverage is limited to the value of the vehicle.
MetLife’s policy stipulates that if a vehicle is totaled within a year of purchase or before 15,000 miles, the insurer will repair or replace the vehicle without deducting for depreciation, GM said.
“This offer enhances the vehicle’s value proposition because our policy is considered one of the most comprehensive in the industry,” Bill Moore, president of MetLife Auto & Home, said in a statement. “Our new car replacement feature is a benefit not found in most auto policies.”
Any driver from the two states who buys or leases a new vehicle through Sept. 6 and titles the vehicle in either state will receive a free one-year automobile insurance policy from MetLife Auto & Home.
The offer is part of a GM pilot program to see if offering a year’s worth of free insurance boosts sales.
GM chose Oregon and Washington to launch the program because the automaker has had traditionally weak sales there, GM spokesman Tom Henderson said.
The offer includes 2010, 2011 and 2012 models, GM said.
GM's U.S. sales are up 17 percent this year in a market that has advanced 13 percent.
If the pilot is successful, GM would consider expanding the program to other markets, Henderson said.
The policy covers the vehicle and any driver as long as the initial customer owns or leases the vehicle. Drivers aren’t required to accept the MetLife insurance.
Any driver with a valid operator's license is eligible for the offer, Henderson said. Commercial and fleet customers are not eligible.
The insurance incorporates liability and physical damage coverage, exceeding the legally required amount of coverage in both states, GM said.
Liability coverage is capped at $100,000 per person, and up to $300,000 per occurrence. Collision coverage is limited to the value of the vehicle.
MetLife’s policy stipulates that if a vehicle is totaled within a year of purchase or before 15,000 miles, the insurer will repair or replace the vehicle without deducting for depreciation, GM said.
“This offer enhances the vehicle’s value proposition because our policy is considered one of the most comprehensive in the industry,” Bill Moore, president of MetLife Auto & Home, said in a statement. “Our new car replacement feature is a benefit not found in most auto policies.”
Thursday, July 07, 2011
the motor is very hot, but isn't, chugging, no power. Hard to start
I would like to thank all that have responded in regards to the catalytic converter.
Last year, with the same symptoms, we punched holes in the converter. Alot of stuff blew out and was fine~after fixing the broken spark plug and cracked coil pack. The muffler shop plugged the holes when had the tailpipe fixed. We thought maybe it was just plugging up again, so we put the holes back in it. But alas, we still have the same problems.
I checked for broken plugs~none. I did find a bad vac line and taped it up for the time being. Now, I would like to see if the second coil is cracked, but cannot figure how to get it off. I took the one bolt out that I could see and it won't come off. I took the bolt out for the other pack, figuring it was holding second one on. Nothing. How to I get that thing off? We replaced the one marked 2 & 3. Now I would like to get 1 & 4 off to check it.
I incorrectly stated the year of my truck in my first message. It is a 1994, 4 cyl, automatic, S-10. My mechanic brother passed away, so I now have no one that can do the back yard stuff. Frustrating.
It acts like a vac line has come off, but they are all on now. Acts like the motor is very hot, but isn't, chugging, no power. Hard to start. We can be driving fine, then starts the no power and chugging. Last year, we would just pull over and shut it off for a few minutes and it would be fine to get home. I drove it two blocks this morning after fixing the one vac line. Was fine until I got half way around. I just came straight back home. It is fine at idle.
How do I get the coil pack off?
Last year, with the same symptoms, we punched holes in the converter. Alot of stuff blew out and was fine~after fixing the broken spark plug and cracked coil pack. The muffler shop plugged the holes when had the tailpipe fixed. We thought maybe it was just plugging up again, so we put the holes back in it. But alas, we still have the same problems.
I checked for broken plugs~none. I did find a bad vac line and taped it up for the time being. Now, I would like to see if the second coil is cracked, but cannot figure how to get it off. I took the one bolt out that I could see and it won't come off. I took the bolt out for the other pack, figuring it was holding second one on. Nothing. How to I get that thing off? We replaced the one marked 2 & 3. Now I would like to get 1 & 4 off to check it.
I incorrectly stated the year of my truck in my first message. It is a 1994, 4 cyl, automatic, S-10. My mechanic brother passed away, so I now have no one that can do the back yard stuff. Frustrating.
It acts like a vac line has come off, but they are all on now. Acts like the motor is very hot, but isn't, chugging, no power. Hard to start. We can be driving fine, then starts the no power and chugging. Last year, we would just pull over and shut it off for a few minutes and it would be fine to get home. I drove it two blocks this morning after fixing the one vac line. Was fine until I got half way around. I just came straight back home. It is fine at idle.
How do I get the coil pack off?
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
56-mpg plan isn't written in stone
Automakers say feds seem open to changes
Automakers say the Obama administration appears not to be wedded to the 56.2-mpg target for 2025 it floated last week and may be open to other refinements.
The manufacturers are pushing for a single national program while expressing concern in private talks with the White House that the standard may be too tough.
They are arguing that no decisions should be made until new forecasts of manufacturers' technology, costs and sales become available.
Environmental advocates who had been calling for a 62-mpg standard expressed support last week for a target of 56.2 mpg, or annual increases of 5 percent after the 2016 model year.
An administration study last fall found that the technology required to meet 5 percent yearly mpg increases would increase the cost of the average 2025-model vehicle by up to $2,600 and produce fuel savings of up to $7,000 over the life of the vehicle.
The Detroit 3 also are proposing that annual mpg increases be low in the early part of the nine-year period until advanced technology can be developed, and that periodic reviews be held.
This snapshot of the ongoing multiparty negotiations comes from industry officials who asked not to be identified. A rule for the 2017-25 model years is scheduled to be proposed in September and made final next July.
Automakers that met with California Gov. Jerry Brown said they got the impression that the state -- which has been an adversary in the past -- would not pose major obstacles to an agreement.
Some manufacturers' public comments also convey cautious optimism that their goal of a single nationwide program can be met.
"Ford believes that the meetings have been productive," a spokeswoman said. "We support increasing fuel economy requirements with one national program that is data-driven."
Automakers have been meeting with the administration and California regulators to build on the 2016-model standard of 35.5 mpg. They have considered 2025 standards of 47 to 62 mpg.
Automakers say the Obama administration appears not to be wedded to the 56.2-mpg target for 2025 it floated last week and may be open to other refinements.
The manufacturers are pushing for a single national program while expressing concern in private talks with the White House that the standard may be too tough.
They are arguing that no decisions should be made until new forecasts of manufacturers' technology, costs and sales become available.
Environmental advocates who had been calling for a 62-mpg standard expressed support last week for a target of 56.2 mpg, or annual increases of 5 percent after the 2016 model year.
An administration study last fall found that the technology required to meet 5 percent yearly mpg increases would increase the cost of the average 2025-model vehicle by up to $2,600 and produce fuel savings of up to $7,000 over the life of the vehicle.
The Detroit 3 also are proposing that annual mpg increases be low in the early part of the nine-year period until advanced technology can be developed, and that periodic reviews be held.
This snapshot of the ongoing multiparty negotiations comes from industry officials who asked not to be identified. A rule for the 2017-25 model years is scheduled to be proposed in September and made final next July.
Automakers that met with California Gov. Jerry Brown said they got the impression that the state -- which has been an adversary in the past -- would not pose major obstacles to an agreement.
Some manufacturers' public comments also convey cautious optimism that their goal of a single nationwide program can be met.
"Ford believes that the meetings have been productive," a spokeswoman said. "We support increasing fuel economy requirements with one national program that is data-driven."
Automakers have been meeting with the administration and California regulators to build on the 2016-model standard of 35.5 mpg. They have considered 2025 standards of 47 to 62 mpg.
Friday, July 01, 2011
GM takes low-key approach to mild-hybrid technology
Stroll around the soon-to-launch 2012 Buick LaCrosse and look for the shiny logo that touts General Motors' latest gas-saving technology, eAssist.
You won't find one.
There's no badge. No attempt to brand eAssist as a breakthrough green technology -- even though the hybrid seems worthy of at least its own little green decal.
eAssist combines an electric motor-generator, brake regeneration and a menu of other little tricks to boost fuel economy by 25 percent, to 25 mpg in city driving and 36 mpg on the highway.
But Buick executives want to keep the focus on the car and let the technology sit quietly in the background.
"The focus isn't 'Come in and buy this new technology,'" Roger McCormack, Buick's product marketing director, said during a media event here. "It's 'Come in and experience all the same great things about the LaCrosse. And oh, by the way, here's a big boost in fuel economy."
It seems GM has learned from its mistakes.
Five years ago, GM rolled out "Hybrid" versions of the Chevrolet Malibu and Saturn Aura, based on an earlier, weaker version of the eAssist technology. Shoppers thought "Toyota Prius" -- until they found that the technology only eked out a few extra mpg.
Sales flopped.
This time, the term "hybrid" won't appear on the vehicle or in any of the upcoming LaCrosse advertising.
The 2012 LaCrosse goes on sale this summer with eAssist as the standard powertrain, along with a 2.4-liter, direct-injected 4-cylinder engine and six-speed transmission. Buyers can get a new, more powerful version of the LaCrosse's 3.6-liter V-6 (17 city, 27 highway) for the same price ($30,820, including freight).
Noticing the mpg
Sure, eAssist will get plenty of play when national ads roll out this fall. And GM will use dealer tutorial videos and live demos so sales folks can negotiate those "It's-not-exactly-a-hybrid" discussions with customers.
But I'll bet most buyers will pay only passing heed to how the technology works -- and will stare long and hard at that difference in mpg.
eAssist uses regenerative braking to charge a small lithium-ion battery stored in the trunk. The battery provides extra power to an electric motor-generator that takes the place of an alternator. It assists the engine with up to 15 hp when the car is accelerating onto the highway, for example.
The electric motor in the so-called mild-hybrid system never powers the car all on its own, unlike the electric motor in a full hybrid such as the Prius. In the LaCrosse, the motor only assists the gasoline engine.
That's why the LaCrosse's city mpg rating trails that of luxury competitors like the Lincoln MKZ hybrid (41 city, 36 highway) or the Lexus HS hybrid (35 city, 34 highway).
But the LaCrosse with eAssist also costs $4,000 to $6,000 less than those vehicles. Buick is betting that buyers will like their return on investment.
Evolving industry
There's one more reason why GM isn't making a "hybrid" fuss.
With the Obama administration mulling a 56.2 mpg requirement by 2025, these sorts of fuel-economy advances simply are becoming the cost of doing business.
Sheri Hickok, GM's vehicle chief engineer for mid-sized and full-size vehicles, puts it this way: "The industry is evolving to where fuel economy itself is becoming the message, not some special technology."
You won't find one.
There's no badge. No attempt to brand eAssist as a breakthrough green technology -- even though the hybrid seems worthy of at least its own little green decal.
eAssist combines an electric motor-generator, brake regeneration and a menu of other little tricks to boost fuel economy by 25 percent, to 25 mpg in city driving and 36 mpg on the highway.
But Buick executives want to keep the focus on the car and let the technology sit quietly in the background.
"The focus isn't 'Come in and buy this new technology,'" Roger McCormack, Buick's product marketing director, said during a media event here. "It's 'Come in and experience all the same great things about the LaCrosse. And oh, by the way, here's a big boost in fuel economy."
It seems GM has learned from its mistakes.
Five years ago, GM rolled out "Hybrid" versions of the Chevrolet Malibu and Saturn Aura, based on an earlier, weaker version of the eAssist technology. Shoppers thought "Toyota Prius" -- until they found that the technology only eked out a few extra mpg.
Sales flopped.
This time, the term "hybrid" won't appear on the vehicle or in any of the upcoming LaCrosse advertising.
The 2012 LaCrosse goes on sale this summer with eAssist as the standard powertrain, along with a 2.4-liter, direct-injected 4-cylinder engine and six-speed transmission. Buyers can get a new, more powerful version of the LaCrosse's 3.6-liter V-6 (17 city, 27 highway) for the same price ($30,820, including freight).
Noticing the mpg
Sure, eAssist will get plenty of play when national ads roll out this fall. And GM will use dealer tutorial videos and live demos so sales folks can negotiate those "It's-not-exactly-a-hybrid" discussions with customers.
But I'll bet most buyers will pay only passing heed to how the technology works -- and will stare long and hard at that difference in mpg.
eAssist uses regenerative braking to charge a small lithium-ion battery stored in the trunk. The battery provides extra power to an electric motor-generator that takes the place of an alternator. It assists the engine with up to 15 hp when the car is accelerating onto the highway, for example.
The electric motor in the so-called mild-hybrid system never powers the car all on its own, unlike the electric motor in a full hybrid such as the Prius. In the LaCrosse, the motor only assists the gasoline engine.
That's why the LaCrosse's city mpg rating trails that of luxury competitors like the Lincoln MKZ hybrid (41 city, 36 highway) or the Lexus HS hybrid (35 city, 34 highway).
But the LaCrosse with eAssist also costs $4,000 to $6,000 less than those vehicles. Buick is betting that buyers will like their return on investment.
Evolving industry
There's one more reason why GM isn't making a "hybrid" fuss.
With the Obama administration mulling a 56.2 mpg requirement by 2025, these sorts of fuel-economy advances simply are becoming the cost of doing business.
Sheri Hickok, GM's vehicle chief engineer for mid-sized and full-size vehicles, puts it this way: "The industry is evolving to where fuel economy itself is becoming the message, not some special technology."
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Toyota Camry tops Cars.com American-made index for 3rd straight year
For the third straight year, the Toyota Camry mid-sized sedan tops the 10 vehicles in Cars.com's annual American-Made Index.
The index ranks U.S.-assembled vehicles based on the percentage of their parts made in the United States and the number of vehicles sold to domestic consumers. At least 75 percent of the parts in every vehicle on the list were made in the United States.
"The Camry remains an incredibly popular vehicle, and higher total sales require a higher number of U.S. factory workers and a larger number of U.S. suppliers -- all of which contribute to Toyota's ranking," Cars.com's editor-in-chief, Patrick Olsen, said in a statement.
Most Camrys are assembled at Toyota's Georgetown, Ky., plant, which employs 6,429 people.
About 25 percent of Camrys are made at Subaru's plant in Lafayette, Ind., Toyota spokesman Jim Wiseman said. Toyota contracts with Subaru to make the vehicles, Wiseman said.
Through May 31, Toyota sold 125,218 domestically made Camrys in the United States and about 80 percent of the parts in the Camry are made domestically, Olsen said.
Wiseman said today that the company was committed to using locally made parts.
"Part of Toyota's guiding principles is to support the communities where we're based," Wiseman said. "The best way we can do that is by using locally made parts."
While it's advantageous for foreign automakers to use U.S.-made parts, Olsen said the Detroit 3 use fewer locally made parts to cut costs and better compete globally.
"They've lessened their domestic parts content but strengthened their bottom line," Olsen said in a telephone interview.
Two other Toyota vehicles cracked the top 10: the Sienna minivan at No. 6 and the Tundra full-sized pickup at No. 9 . With three vehicles in the rankings, Toyota tied General Motors for the most vehicles in the top 10.
GM's Chevrolet Malibu mid-sized sedan ranked third, up from fifth last year. The Chevrolet Traverse crossover was No. 8 and the GMC Acadia crossover rounded out the list at No. 10. Neither the Traverse nor the Acadia was on the list last year.
For the second straight year, the Honda Accord claimed the second spot in the rankings. The Accord is built at the automaker's Marysville, Ohio, plant and 120,035 American made units were sold in the first five months of 2011.
Honda's Odyssey minivan also made the list, coming in at No. 5.
The Chicago-made Ford Explorer made its debut on this year's list at No. 4 and is the only Ford Motor Co. vehicle to make the rankings. According to Olsen, 85 percent of the Explorer's parts are made in the United States.
The Jeep Wrangler, ranked No. 7, is the only Chrysler vehicle on the list.
The index ranks U.S.-assembled vehicles based on the percentage of their parts made in the United States and the number of vehicles sold to domestic consumers. At least 75 percent of the parts in every vehicle on the list were made in the United States.
"The Camry remains an incredibly popular vehicle, and higher total sales require a higher number of U.S. factory workers and a larger number of U.S. suppliers -- all of which contribute to Toyota's ranking," Cars.com's editor-in-chief, Patrick Olsen, said in a statement.
Most Camrys are assembled at Toyota's Georgetown, Ky., plant, which employs 6,429 people.
About 25 percent of Camrys are made at Subaru's plant in Lafayette, Ind., Toyota spokesman Jim Wiseman said. Toyota contracts with Subaru to make the vehicles, Wiseman said.
Through May 31, Toyota sold 125,218 domestically made Camrys in the United States and about 80 percent of the parts in the Camry are made domestically, Olsen said.
Wiseman said today that the company was committed to using locally made parts.
"Part of Toyota's guiding principles is to support the communities where we're based," Wiseman said. "The best way we can do that is by using locally made parts."
While it's advantageous for foreign automakers to use U.S.-made parts, Olsen said the Detroit 3 use fewer locally made parts to cut costs and better compete globally.
"They've lessened their domestic parts content but strengthened their bottom line," Olsen said in a telephone interview.
Two other Toyota vehicles cracked the top 10: the Sienna minivan at No. 6 and the Tundra full-sized pickup at No. 9 . With three vehicles in the rankings, Toyota tied General Motors for the most vehicles in the top 10.
GM's Chevrolet Malibu mid-sized sedan ranked third, up from fifth last year. The Chevrolet Traverse crossover was No. 8 and the GMC Acadia crossover rounded out the list at No. 10. Neither the Traverse nor the Acadia was on the list last year.
For the second straight year, the Honda Accord claimed the second spot in the rankings. The Accord is built at the automaker's Marysville, Ohio, plant and 120,035 American made units were sold in the first five months of 2011.
Honda's Odyssey minivan also made the list, coming in at No. 5.
The Chicago-made Ford Explorer made its debut on this year's list at No. 4 and is the only Ford Motor Co. vehicle to make the rankings. According to Olsen, 85 percent of the Explorer's parts are made in the United States.
The Jeep Wrangler, ranked No. 7, is the only Chrysler vehicle on the list.
Monday, June 27, 2011
The scramble for scarce tires
Automakers pay more as supply tightens
North American automakers are struggling with a nagging shortage of tires, caused in part by tire plant closings and rising demand for low-volume specialty tires.
Automakers are paying much higher prices -- double-digit percentage increases from a year ago -- as tire makers gain pricing power.
"We have been bombarded from every side for additional tires, and we can't keep up," said David O'Donnell, Continental Tire's vice president of original equipment in the Americas. "We are at maximum capacity, and all shifts are maxed out."
The shortage doesn't appear to have significantly crimped production plans, though automakers are scrambling to secure supplies. Earlier this year, Dan Knott, Chrysler Group's senior vice president of purchasing and supplier quality, said the company was short of premium tires for some nameplates.
"The tire shortage will not clear up over the next year," Knott predicted. "It's going to take awhile."
Automakers pay as little as $75 per tire for low-end models to as much as $300 or more for high-performance tires.
To meet demand, Continental will expand plants in Illinois and Brazil and will build a factory somewhere in North America. But this will take time. The new lines in Illinois and Brazil won't hit full production until 2013, O'Donnell said.
Continental is investing $224 million to expand its plant in Mount Vernon, Ill., plus $210 million to expand its plant in Camacari, Brazil.
Other tire makers also are maxed out. Michelin is running its North American plants at full capacity, although it has met some requests for more tires, Vice President Rob Murray said in a recent interview.
The shortages come at a time when demand is rising. According to a forecast by consulting firm IHS Automotive, automakers in the United States and Canada will buy 62 million tires for new vehicles this year.
That's up from 55 million tires in 2010. By 2016, North American demand for original equipment tires will rise to 79 million units, IHS estimates.
Fewer tire factories
Bruce Harrison, IHS Automotive's director of North American consulting, says the shortage won't be solved any time soon.
"There are a lot more tire sizes in the marketplace now, and it doesn't look like that trend is slowing," Harrison said. Producing extra tire sizes and low-volume specialty lines reduce a standard tire plant's capacity.
To make things worse, tire makers had been cutting back on North American production capacity before the recession. In 2006 and 2007 alone, four U.S. tire plants were closed, according to The New York Times.
Plant closures eliminated about 71 million units of U.S. capacity, John Baratta, president of replacement tire sales for the United States and Canada at Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations, said in a June article in Automotive News' sister publication Tire Business.
Meanwhile, tire manufacturers were opening factories in China that flooded the U.S. market with cheap tires. But in September 2009 the Obama administration slapped a three-year tariff on imported Chinese tires.
The tax started at 35 percent of a tire's value declining to 30 percent and 25 percent in the second and third years. The import tax expires in September 2012.
Tire prices have "moved up very sharply" since 2009, said Saul Ludwig, an auto analyst at Northcoast Research, an equity research firm in Cleveland. Increases in the cost of rubber and other materials used in tire manufacturing, including steel, have tightened supplies and driven costs higher.
Soaring costs
Since 2005, the combined prices of natural and synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel cord, fabric and other materials have risen nearly every year, with jumps of 56 percent in 2010, and 47 percent in 2009, Bridgestone's Baratta said.
Continental, Michelin North America Inc., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and other major tire makers have raised prices several times in the past few years to offset rising raw-materials costs.
Automakers and tire companies don't disclose original-equipment prices. But rising prices for replacement tires suggest what's going on in the original-equipment market.
For example, Michelin said the company has raised prices three times over the past year on car and light-truck replacement tires: an 8.5 percent increase on May 1; a November 2010 increase that the company wouldn't quantify; and a 6 percent increase last June.
Despite the headaches, automakers appear to be muddling through. During an interview last week, Tony Brown, Ford's group vice president of global purchasing, said Ford's vehicle production plans this year will not be affected by tight supplies of tires or other components.
"We have enough tires," Brown said. "We will deliver the production plan, with the tires to support those plans."
North American automakers are struggling with a nagging shortage of tires, caused in part by tire plant closings and rising demand for low-volume specialty tires.
Automakers are paying much higher prices -- double-digit percentage increases from a year ago -- as tire makers gain pricing power.
"We have been bombarded from every side for additional tires, and we can't keep up," said David O'Donnell, Continental Tire's vice president of original equipment in the Americas. "We are at maximum capacity, and all shifts are maxed out."
The shortage doesn't appear to have significantly crimped production plans, though automakers are scrambling to secure supplies. Earlier this year, Dan Knott, Chrysler Group's senior vice president of purchasing and supplier quality, said the company was short of premium tires for some nameplates.
"The tire shortage will not clear up over the next year," Knott predicted. "It's going to take awhile."
Automakers pay as little as $75 per tire for low-end models to as much as $300 or more for high-performance tires.
To meet demand, Continental will expand plants in Illinois and Brazil and will build a factory somewhere in North America. But this will take time. The new lines in Illinois and Brazil won't hit full production until 2013, O'Donnell said.
Continental is investing $224 million to expand its plant in Mount Vernon, Ill., plus $210 million to expand its plant in Camacari, Brazil.
Other tire makers also are maxed out. Michelin is running its North American plants at full capacity, although it has met some requests for more tires, Vice President Rob Murray said in a recent interview.
The shortages come at a time when demand is rising. According to a forecast by consulting firm IHS Automotive, automakers in the United States and Canada will buy 62 million tires for new vehicles this year.
That's up from 55 million tires in 2010. By 2016, North American demand for original equipment tires will rise to 79 million units, IHS estimates.
Fewer tire factories
Bruce Harrison, IHS Automotive's director of North American consulting, says the shortage won't be solved any time soon.
"There are a lot more tire sizes in the marketplace now, and it doesn't look like that trend is slowing," Harrison said. Producing extra tire sizes and low-volume specialty lines reduce a standard tire plant's capacity.
To make things worse, tire makers had been cutting back on North American production capacity before the recession. In 2006 and 2007 alone, four U.S. tire plants were closed, according to The New York Times.
Plant closures eliminated about 71 million units of U.S. capacity, John Baratta, president of replacement tire sales for the United States and Canada at Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations, said in a June article in Automotive News' sister publication Tire Business.
Meanwhile, tire manufacturers were opening factories in China that flooded the U.S. market with cheap tires. But in September 2009 the Obama administration slapped a three-year tariff on imported Chinese tires.
The tax started at 35 percent of a tire's value declining to 30 percent and 25 percent in the second and third years. The import tax expires in September 2012.
Tire prices have "moved up very sharply" since 2009, said Saul Ludwig, an auto analyst at Northcoast Research, an equity research firm in Cleveland. Increases in the cost of rubber and other materials used in tire manufacturing, including steel, have tightened supplies and driven costs higher.
Soaring costs
Since 2005, the combined prices of natural and synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel cord, fabric and other materials have risen nearly every year, with jumps of 56 percent in 2010, and 47 percent in 2009, Bridgestone's Baratta said.
Continental, Michelin North America Inc., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and other major tire makers have raised prices several times in the past few years to offset rising raw-materials costs.
Automakers and tire companies don't disclose original-equipment prices. But rising prices for replacement tires suggest what's going on in the original-equipment market.
For example, Michelin said the company has raised prices three times over the past year on car and light-truck replacement tires: an 8.5 percent increase on May 1; a November 2010 increase that the company wouldn't quantify; and a 6 percent increase last June.
Despite the headaches, automakers appear to be muddling through. During an interview last week, Tony Brown, Ford's group vice president of global purchasing, said Ford's vehicle production plans this year will not be affected by tight supplies of tires or other components.
"We have enough tires," Brown said. "We will deliver the production plan, with the tires to support those plans."
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Chrysler prepares to build Dodge small car
Chrysler Group LLC said it plans to begin test production in the second half of this year of the small car that will trigger U.S. government requirements to increase Fiat S.p.A.'s ownership stake.
Tooling for the small Dodge brand car will be installed at Chrysler's Belvidere, Ill., assembly plant in August, said Fred Goedtel, head of Chrysler's vehicle assembly operations.
"We'll start pilots in the fall" and official production begins "sometime" in the first quarter, he said.
Design work on the car, which is the vehicle Chrysler expects will trigger the final government ownership milestone, is done, said Ralph Gilles, head of Chrysler design.
"The company is really focused on it," he said of the vehicle.
Fiat is moving fast to consolidate control over Chrysler.
The Italian automaker is buying the U.S. Treasury Department's final stake in the U.S. automaker that was acquired as part of Chrysler's 2009 bankruptcy reorganization.
That purchase will raise Fiat's stake to 52 percent. Chrysler must test and commit to building a vehicle in the U.S. that achieves 40 mpg for Fiat to gain another 5 percent stake.
Its deal with the U.S. and Canada allowed Fiat to gain as much as 35 percent in Chrysler without paying cash in exchange for giving management experience and technology to Chrysler.
Fiat was also required to achieve various performance milestones.
The 40 mpg vehicle is the final such milestone. Fiat also exercised an option to purchase 16 percent of the company after Chrysler repaid the U.S. and Canadian government loans in May.
Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of both automakers, has said he expects Fiat will get its final 5 percent tied to the 40 mpg car by year's end.
The small Dodge car is based on Fiat's Alfa Romeo Giulietta, Marchionne has said. Gilles said the new Dodge model's name was decided earlier this week.
But he declined to provide the name.
Tooling for the small Dodge brand car will be installed at Chrysler's Belvidere, Ill., assembly plant in August, said Fred Goedtel, head of Chrysler's vehicle assembly operations.
"We'll start pilots in the fall" and official production begins "sometime" in the first quarter, he said.
Design work on the car, which is the vehicle Chrysler expects will trigger the final government ownership milestone, is done, said Ralph Gilles, head of Chrysler design.
"The company is really focused on it," he said of the vehicle.
Fiat is moving fast to consolidate control over Chrysler.
The Italian automaker is buying the U.S. Treasury Department's final stake in the U.S. automaker that was acquired as part of Chrysler's 2009 bankruptcy reorganization.
That purchase will raise Fiat's stake to 52 percent. Chrysler must test and commit to building a vehicle in the U.S. that achieves 40 mpg for Fiat to gain another 5 percent stake.
Its deal with the U.S. and Canada allowed Fiat to gain as much as 35 percent in Chrysler without paying cash in exchange for giving management experience and technology to Chrysler.
Fiat was also required to achieve various performance milestones.
The 40 mpg vehicle is the final such milestone. Fiat also exercised an option to purchase 16 percent of the company after Chrysler repaid the U.S. and Canadian government loans in May.
Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of both automakers, has said he expects Fiat will get its final 5 percent tied to the 40 mpg car by year's end.
The small Dodge car is based on Fiat's Alfa Romeo Giulietta, Marchionne has said. Gilles said the new Dodge model's name was decided earlier this week.
But he declined to provide the name.
Car, truck demand rebounding in June after May dip
U.S. sales of cars and light trucks are rebounding in June after falling for the first time in nine months in May, analysts said.
June increases projected by three research firms range from 8 percent to 14 percent. May's sales dropped 4 percent from a year earlier as consumers confronted rising gasoline prices, reduced incentives, and vehicle shortages caused by the March earthquake in Japan.
June's seasonally adjusted annual sales rate will be in the 12 million range when automakers' results are announced on July 1, according to the forecasts.
The SAAR had been above that mark for seven straight months before consumers scaled back purchases in May.
"There has been some easing of negative variables in June, as the inventory shortage has not been as severe as expected, and gas prices have dropped noticeably from higher levels in April and May," Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, said in a statement today.
"Provided that the economy decides to cooperate, the automotive summer slowdown will only be a speed bump, and a return of a measurable recovery pace is still expected in the second half of 2011."
Overall, light vehicle demand is forecast to rise 8 percent this month from June 2010 to 1.1 million units, or at an annualized rate of 12 million, J.D. Power said.
Trucks, small cars pace gains
Retail sales of new vehicles are projected to come in at 884,800 units in June, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 9.9 million units, J.D. Power said.
That's an improvement from May's 9.3-million-unit rate.
Large pickup and compact car demand are driving the increase in June sales.
J.D. Power said big pickup trucks represent 10.6 percent of retail sales month-to-date — the highest level since February.
Compact cars comprise 17.6 percent of retail sales this month, up from 17.2 percent in May.
May sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.78 million units - the lowest level since August 2010 – after topping 13 million units for three straight months.
U.S. light vehicle sales are up 14 percent through May, to 5.28 million units.
May dip
On Thursday, TrueCar.com estimated June new light vehicle sales, including fleet, will climb 13.5 percent to 1.12 million units from a year ago.
June retail sales are forecast to rise 2.1 percent from a year earlier, TrueCar said.
"Uncertainty in the economy as well as high gas prices and shortages in small car inventory contributed to the limited gains in sales in June." TrueCar analyst Jesse Toprak said in a statement. "May appeared to be the low point in vehicle sales this year and we don't expect sales to go below 11.9 million SAAR level."
Edmunds.com estimates June sales of 1.09 million new vehicles, up 11.2 percent.
Low supplies of small, fuel-efficient models and price increases have prompted consumers to delay purchases, Edmunds said.
"As prices and inventory return closer to normal levels by September, many of those lost sales can be made up by the end of this year when consumers return to the market," Edmunds.com chief economist Lacey Plache said in a statement.
Lower outlook
While some of the external pressures on new car and truck demand have lessened in recent weeks, some analysts and automakers have grown more cautious about the industry's outlook.
The Federal Reserve, citing slow job growth, fuel prices and the weak housing market, this week lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth for the remainder of the year.
J.D. Power has reduced its forecast for 2011 retail sales to 10.5 million units from 10.6 million units. And the company's forecast for total sales, including fleets, has been revised to 12.9 million units from 13 million units.
"Conditions for light-vehicle sales are improving, but the automotive market remains fluid and susceptible to a slower economic recovery or external shock," John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power, said in a statement. "This risk is driving a more cautious approach to the market outlook for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012."
June increases projected by three research firms range from 8 percent to 14 percent. May's sales dropped 4 percent from a year earlier as consumers confronted rising gasoline prices, reduced incentives, and vehicle shortages caused by the March earthquake in Japan.
June's seasonally adjusted annual sales rate will be in the 12 million range when automakers' results are announced on July 1, according to the forecasts.
The SAAR had been above that mark for seven straight months before consumers scaled back purchases in May.
"There has been some easing of negative variables in June, as the inventory shortage has not been as severe as expected, and gas prices have dropped noticeably from higher levels in April and May," Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, said in a statement today.
"Provided that the economy decides to cooperate, the automotive summer slowdown will only be a speed bump, and a return of a measurable recovery pace is still expected in the second half of 2011."
Overall, light vehicle demand is forecast to rise 8 percent this month from June 2010 to 1.1 million units, or at an annualized rate of 12 million, J.D. Power said.
Trucks, small cars pace gains
Retail sales of new vehicles are projected to come in at 884,800 units in June, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 9.9 million units, J.D. Power said.
That's an improvement from May's 9.3-million-unit rate.
Large pickup and compact car demand are driving the increase in June sales.
J.D. Power said big pickup trucks represent 10.6 percent of retail sales month-to-date — the highest level since February.
Compact cars comprise 17.6 percent of retail sales this month, up from 17.2 percent in May.
May sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11.78 million units - the lowest level since August 2010 – after topping 13 million units for three straight months.
U.S. light vehicle sales are up 14 percent through May, to 5.28 million units.
May dip
On Thursday, TrueCar.com estimated June new light vehicle sales, including fleet, will climb 13.5 percent to 1.12 million units from a year ago.
June retail sales are forecast to rise 2.1 percent from a year earlier, TrueCar said.
"Uncertainty in the economy as well as high gas prices and shortages in small car inventory contributed to the limited gains in sales in June." TrueCar analyst Jesse Toprak said in a statement. "May appeared to be the low point in vehicle sales this year and we don't expect sales to go below 11.9 million SAAR level."
Edmunds.com estimates June sales of 1.09 million new vehicles, up 11.2 percent.
Low supplies of small, fuel-efficient models and price increases have prompted consumers to delay purchases, Edmunds said.
"As prices and inventory return closer to normal levels by September, many of those lost sales can be made up by the end of this year when consumers return to the market," Edmunds.com chief economist Lacey Plache said in a statement.
Lower outlook
While some of the external pressures on new car and truck demand have lessened in recent weeks, some analysts and automakers have grown more cautious about the industry's outlook.
The Federal Reserve, citing slow job growth, fuel prices and the weak housing market, this week lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth for the remainder of the year.
J.D. Power has reduced its forecast for 2011 retail sales to 10.5 million units from 10.6 million units. And the company's forecast for total sales, including fleets, has been revised to 12.9 million units from 13 million units.
"Conditions for light-vehicle sales are improving, but the automotive market remains fluid and susceptible to a slower economic recovery or external shock," John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power, said in a statement. "This risk is driving a more cautious approach to the market outlook for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012."
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